Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains,China     

Jian-sheng Hao  Fa-rong Huang  Yang Liu  Chukwudi Amanambu Amobichukwu  Lan-hai Li

《山地科学学报》2018,15(7):1397-1411

Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011-2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤M_L≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.  相似文献   

An interacting new holographic dark energy in the framework of fractal cosmology     

Ehsan Sadri  Martiros Khurshudyan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(11):230

In this paper, we study an interacting holographic dark energy model in the framework of fractal cosmology. The features of fractal cosmology could pass ultraviolet divergencies and also make a better understanding of the universe in different dimensions. We discuss a fractal FRW universe filled with the dark energy and cold dark matter interacting with each other. It is observed that the Hubble parameter embraces the recent observational range while the deceleration parameter demonstrates an accelerating universe and a behavior similar to \(\Lambda \mbox{CDM}\). Plotting the equation of state shows that it lies in phantom region for interaction mode. We use \(\mathit{Om}\)-diagnostic tool and it shows a phantom behavior of dark energy which is a condition of avoiding the formation of black holes. Finally we execute the StateFinder diagnostic pair and all the trajectories for interacting and non-interacting state of the model meet the fixed point \(\Lambda \mbox{CDM}\) at the start of the evolution. A behavior similar to Chaplygin gas also can be observed in statefinder plane. We find that new holographic dark energy model (NHDE) in fractal cosmology expressed the consistent behavior with recent observational data and can be considered as a model to avoid the formation of black holes in comparison with the main model of NHDE in the simple FRW universe. It has also been observed that for the interaction term varying with matter density, the model generates asymptotic de-Sitter solution. However, if the interaction term varies with energy density, then the model shows Big-Rip singularity. Using our modified CAMB code, we observed that the interacting model suppresses the CMB spectrum at low multipoles \(l<50\) and enhances the acoustic peaks. Based on the observational data sets used in this paper and using Metropolis-Hastings method of MCMC numerical calculation, it seems that the best value with \(1\sigma \) and \(2\sigma \) confidence interval are \(\Omega _{m0}=0.278^{+0.008~+0.010} _{-0.007~-0.009}\), \(H_{0}=69.9^{+0.95~+1.57}_{-0.95~-1.57}\), \(r_{c}=0.08^{+0.02~+0.027}_{-0.002~-0.0027}\), \(\beta =0.496^{+0.005~+0.009} _{-0.005~-0.009}\), \(c= 0.691^{+0.024~+0.039}_{-0.025~-0.037}\) and \(b^{2}=0.035\) according to which we find that the proposed model in the presence of interaction is compatible with the recent observational data.  相似文献   

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Pierre Gassendi     

Mikhail Vokhmyanin  Nadezhda Zolotova 《Solar physics》2018,293(11):150

Solar activity behaviour on the eve of the Maunder minimum may provide important information on the period of further suppression of sunspot population. We analyse sunspot positions and areas in the 1630s extracted from rare drawings published by Pierre Gassendi in Opera Omnia. This work was published in two different editions, the first in Lyon and the second almost 70 years later in Florence. The drawings published in Lyon are found to be slightly different from those published in Florence, which produces a discrepancy in the position of spots of a few degrees, while sunspot group areas may differ by a factor of two. We reveal that the orientation of the drawings in the book is not always the same as might be seen in the telescope. We conjecture that the time of Gassendi’s observations covers the beginning of a new Schwabe cycle in the southern hemisphere. The differential rotation rate in the 1630s is also assessed and discussed.  相似文献   

Walking Access Distance of Metro Passengers and Relationship with Demographic Characteristics: A Case Study of Nanjing Metro     

Jinliao He  Ruozhu Zhang  Xianjin Huang  Guangliang Xi 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(4):612-623

In the metropolises of China, the metro plays an increasingly important role in commuting because of its efficiency, affordability, and cleanliness. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between walking access distance to metro stations and the demographic characteristics of passengers, such as age, monthly income, travel frequency, gender, and travel purpose, as well as the influence of the urban context. Nanjing Metro Line 2 is selected as the case study. By using different methods such as a questionnaire survey, spatial decay function, analysis of covariance (ANOVA), network analysis of routes, and K-means cluster analysis, it is suggested that demographic characteristics have a significant impact on the pedestrian walking distance, with the exception of gender. Furthermore, the paper finds a spatial decay effect in walking access distance, the decay rate of which, however, varies across stations. Terminal stations have a larger pedestrian catchment area than in regular and exchange stations. Moreover, the passengers of Nanjing Metro Line 2 can be classified into six groups according to their demographic characteristics, among which education and occupation are vital indicators in determining their willingness to walk to the stations. Middle-class passengers have a higher dependence on the metro and tend to walk longer than other groups do. This study provides an important reference for planners and transport sectors to optimize land-use and transport infrastructures.  相似文献   

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru     

Sly C. Wongchuig  Carlos R. Mello  Sin C. Chou 《山地科学学报》2018,15(2):264-279

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.  相似文献   

Latitudinal and temporal shifts in the radial growth-climate response of Siberian larch in the Polar Urals     

Vladimir V. Kukarskih  Nadezhda M. Devi  Pavel A. Moiseev  Andrey A. Grigoriev  Maksim O. Bubnov 《山地科学学报》2018,15(4):722-729

This paper presents a dendroclimatic analysis of Siberian larch trees sampled along a latitudinal 260-km transect located in the Polar Urals,Russia. Three standardised chronologies were built over a length of 230–293 years using 79 individual tree-ring chronologies collected in the southern,middle and northern parts of the Polar Urals.Bootstrapped correlation functions showed that the annual growth of the larches was mainly influenced by the air temperatures in June and July. The relative role of the temperatures increased from south to north. Daily air temperature data analysis revealed that the duration of the growing season in the northern part of the Polar Urals is 24 days less than that in the southern part. At the present time, air temperatures exceeded threshold of 8~℃, 5 days earlier than it did in the beginning of the 20 th century In response to the increase in the duration of the growing season and the changing winter conditions in the Polar Urals over the last 130 years, radial growth–temperature relationships in larches have weakened;this effect was strongly pronounced in the southern part of the Polar Urals.  相似文献   

The Problem of the Height Dependence of Magnetic Fields in Sunspots     

Horst Balthasar 《Solar physics》2018,293(8):120

To understand the physics of sunspots, it is important to know the properties of their magnetic field, and especially its height stratification plays a substantial role. There are mainly two methods to assess this stratification, but they yield different magnetic gradients in the photospheric layers. Determinations based on the several spectral lines of different formation heights and the slope of their profiles result in gradients of ?2 to ?3 G?km^?1, or even steeper. This is similar for the total magnetic field strength and for the vertical component of the magnetic field. The other option is to determine the horizontal partial derivatives of the magnetic field, and with the condition \(\operatorname{div} {{\boldsymbol {B}}} = 0\) also the vertical derivative is known. With this method, gradients of ?0.5 G?km^?1 and even shallower are obtained. Obviously, these results do not agree. If chromospheric spectral lines are included, only shallow gradients around ?0.5 G?km^?1 are obtained. Shallow gradients are also found from gyro-resonance measurements in the radio wave range 300?–?2000 GHz.Some indirect methods are also considered, but they cannot clarify the total picture. An analysis of a numerical simulation of a sunspot indicates a shallow gradient over a wide height range, but with slightly steeper gradients in deep layers.Several ideas to explain the discrepancy are also discussed. With no doubts cast on Maxwell’s equations, the first one is to look at the uncertainties of the formation heights of spectral lines, but a wider range of these heights would require an extension of the solar photosphere that is incompatible with observations and the theory of stellar atmospheres. Submerging and rising magnetic flux might play a role in the outer penumbra, if the resolution is too low to separate them, but it is not likely that this effect acts also in the umbra. A quick investigation assuming a spatial small scale structure of sunspots together with twist and writhe of individual flux tubes shows a reduction of the measured magnetic field strength for spectral lines sensitive to a larger height range. However, sophisticated investigations are required to prove that the explanation for the discrepancy lies here, and the problem of the height gradient of the magnetic field in sunspots is still not solved.  相似文献   

Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea     

Yohan Lee  Byungdoo Lee 《山地科学学报》2018,15(1):144-155

This study explores the tradeoff relationship between the number of initial attack firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea, where most fires are caused by human activities. To examine this tradeoff relationship, we develop a hybrid model that combines a robust optimization model with a stochastic simulation model. The robust optimization minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a pre-defined response, such as the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at the fire within half an hour, subject to budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of number, location, ignition time, and intensity of fires occur. Results show that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack firefighting resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea for reducing the expected number of fires not covered by the predefined response. The mixed policy of fire suppression and fire prevention may produce some gains in efficiency relative to the dominant policy of strong fire suppression strategies.  相似文献   

Modeling regional landslide susceptibility using dynamic soil moisture profiles     

Ram L. Ray  Jennifer M. Jacobs  Ellen M. Douglas 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1807-1824

A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture (SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater (GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California’s in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal’s hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.  相似文献   

Resonance transition periodic orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem     

Hanlun Lei  Bo Xu 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(4):70

This work studies a special type of cislunar periodic orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem called resonance transition periodic orbits, which switch between different resonances and revolve about the secondary with multiple loops during one period. In the practical computation, families of multiple periodic orbits are identified first, and then the invariant manifolds emanating from the unstable multiple periodic orbits are taken to generate resonant homoclinic connections, which are used to determine the initial guesses for computing the desired periodic orbits by means of multiple-shooting scheme. The obtained periodic orbits have potential applications for the missions requiring long-term continuous observation of the secondary and tour missions in a multi-body environment.  相似文献